A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
